The Balance Sheet
13 April 2003
Now that Blair and Bush, thanks to immensely superior technical
military firepower, have achieved their desire in Iraq, it is time
to look at the costs and benefits of their adventure.
This has been an historic event, with huge reportage given to the
detail of the action, but a diet of undigested news can amount to
information overload.
The brief notes in this balance sheet are offered as a mental map
to help the writer, and hopefully others, to get their bearings
and to focus on what needs to be done next.
1. Positive Outcome
Saddam Hussein is no longer oppressing the people he controlled with
spies, torture, imprisonment , executions and ethnic cleansing.
2. Negative Outcomes
2.1. Human Suffering
2.1.1. Deaths (as at April 13 2003)
Iraqi civilians - somewhere between 1367 and 1670
Iraqi troops - 2320
US troops - 109
UK troops - 30
Figure health check :- a Russian analyst gave a figure of 340 when
the coalition estimates stood at 100 coalition troops.
The truth represented by those statistics is one of the most intense
grief possible, multiplied over and over again.
One detail - friendly fire: to what extent was amphetamine use
by the perpetrators a factor in these incidents? Does Blair have
the guts to raise this issue with the American Secretary of State
for defence?
2.1.2. Disability
2.1.2.1. Immediate
The problems for the casualties created by the bombing and shooting
are made worse by inadequate Hospital conditions.
Why was the collapse of the medical services not foreseen by war
planners?
Will as much energy and money be put into medical services as into
the bombing?
2.1.2.2. Medium term
Cluster bombs behave like land mines, which have at long last been
banned.
How long will Blair drag his feet in resisting the banning of cluster
bombs?
2.1.3. Physical Ill Health
Immediate
Water
Food
Medicines
Hospital infrastructure and staffing - all these vital factors are
compromised.
The humanitarian aid budget is £240 m: the military cost of
the war so far is $25.3 b - a ration of 50:1 in favour of killing
over lifesaving.
Medium term
Depleted Uranium
The use of this toxic and radioactive metal in shells will increase
the incidence of birth deformities cancers & leukaemias.
2.1.4 Psychological Ill Health
Bereavement
PTSD
Depression
Anxiety
Anger and hatred
What action will Bush and Blair order to build the psychiatric
services in Iraq?
2.1.5 Social Ill Health
The breakdown in civil order that we have seen will probably soon
pass - but why was it not anticipated by the war planners?
Why did they have the foresight to protect the Ministry of Oil and
the Ministry of Information with troops, but not hospitals and museums?
Why were there no translators available to the troops? How many
died because they did not understand orders shouted in English?
US troops have fired on demonstrations, killing apparently unarmed
Iraqis.
2.1.6 Cultural losses
The looting of museums also happened after the 1991 war.
2.1.4. Financial and Political Costs
2.1.4.1. Financial costs
$25,300,000,000 - cost so far to the coalition. Think how far that
could have gone in providing clean water to the world's poorest
communities.
2.1.4.2. Political Costs
2.1.4.2.1 Islamic Fundamentalism in Iraq
Everybody has been taken by surprise by the upsurge of Shia Islamic
fervour after the war.Shias who make up 60% of the population are
lining up to take power. Will the eventual outcome be another Islamic
regime as in Iran or Afghanistan under the Taliban?
This should have been predictable given the similar events following
the fall of the Shah of Iran. I also failed to predict this, but
then I am an amateur. It is amazing that all the highly paid official
experts in Whitehall and the Pentagon failed to anticipate this
event.
2.1.4.2.2. Diplomatic problems
The tensions between Turkey and the Kurds have been exacerbated
by this war.
The problems between Israel and Palestine must be settled by diplomacy.
Arab feelings of anger may create more terrorist acts.
Political divisions in the UN, EU and NATO must be healed
2.1.4.2.3. Institutionalisation of Policy by Bombardment
One adverse effect of Kosovo, Afghanistan and now Iraq is that since
the operations were militarily successful in the strictly limited
military sense of the ratio of our fatalities versus their fatalities,
the US will tend to continue doing so - until the ruinous financial
and political costs can no longer be tolerated. The logic of the
situation is that Syria, North Korea and Iran are the next on the
list.
The world cannot accept a policy of repeated bombing, over and
over again, as an instrument of international policy.
2.1.4.2.4. Weapons of Mass Destruction
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty exists to prevent the spread
of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear states. Under the treaty, Nuclear
Weapons holding states like the US and UK are expected to take meaningful
steps to reduce their nuclear arsenals. This they have consistently
failed to do. Instead, they have apparently started a policy of
serial destruction of states who are trying to get nuclear weapons.
It is utterly hypocritical for politicians who argue that nuclear
weapons are vital for the security of their own nation to attack
other states who are affected by the same delusion.
3. Next steps for Campaigning
3.1. Immediate
Given the regrettable fact that the war has taken place, I find
these points, originating from ARROW and slightly modified here,
useful guidelines:
US/UK troops should be withdrawn to be replaced by UN troops -
if this is financially and diplomatically possible.
· So long as US/UK forces illegally occupy Iraq they must
adhere strictly to
international human rights and humanitarian law. In particular under
the
Geneva Convention and Hague Regulations an occupying power has a
duty 'to
ensure the food and medical supplies of the population' and to restore
and
maintain public order and safety (http://web.amnesty.org/library).
· Aid agencies should be allowed to fulfil their function
of providing the
aid which is so desperately needed to the people of Iraq. Under
the Geneva
Convention if the population of an occupied territory is 'inadequately
supplied' the occupying power is obliged to 'agree to and facilitate
by all
the means at its disposal' humanitarian relief by 'impartial humanitarian
organisations.'
· There must be an immediate end to the economic sanctions
on Iraq. Over the past twelve years these sanctions -which remain
in place - have created massive poverty
in Iraq, devastating the lives of millions of ordinary Iraqis. The
existing
UN humanitarian programme ('oil-for-food') has not resolved - and
cannot
resolve - this humanitarian crisis.
· There must be an immediate ban on the use of cluster bombs,
· There must be an immediate ban on Depleted Uranium (DU)
weapons
· There must be an immediate ban on the 21,000 pound Massive
Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB).
All of these weapons are by their nature 'indiscriminate' and their
use is therefore illegal.
· The US/UK should pay compensation to people in Iraq who
have lost family
members, houses, businesses or who have been injured, by the US/UK
invasion
and occupation.
· The reconstruction of Iraq should take place free from
foreign interference
and must allow the full use of Iraq's resources by and for its own
people.
· The new Iraqi state should not be forced to pay Saddam
Hussein's debts and
'reparations' for the 1991 Gulf War. Saddam Hussein owes almost
$400bn in
debts and reparation claims. These must be cancelled if Iraq is
to begin to
reverse the devastating effects of war and sanctions. (http://www.jubileeiraq.org)
· No further countries are to be attacked in the so-called
'war on terrorism'.
3.2. Medium term
3.2.1. We need a debate on the nature of Democracy;
In the hands of Bush and Blair, the idea of democracy has been abused
as a reason for going to war. America and Britain are far from being
shining examples of democracy (Bush is an appointee of the Supreme
Court, which stopped the vote counting process in Florida, and Blair
is elected by the grossly distorting FPTP system).
3.2.2. We need to persuade the UN to adopt an Index of Governance
based on the Human Rights Index, as a name and shame exercise for
brutal regimes.
3.2.3. Long term
We need to persuade the UN to impose a sliding scale of penalties
on states which are performing poorly on the Index
of Governance.
Conclusion
The bottom line is that the negative outcomes of Operation Iraqi
Liberation decisively outweigh the positive outcomes.
We must use our power as citizens in relatively democratic societies
to bring about the political changes that are needed to prevent
a repetition of Iraq 2003.
Richard Lawson
Congresbury
14.4.03
|
